Causal Modeling and Digital Transformation in Ecuadorian Higher Education through Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Abstract

The effective integration of technological innovation in Ecuadorian EIs faces predominantly human barriers, characterized by the perception of risk and complexity and the high teacher workload. This study addressed this challenge using the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) methodology to model and analyze the causal interdependencies that affect teachers' sustained technology use rates.

Intervention simulations consistently resulted in near-complete success. Strategically, the most effective policy was determined to be risk mitigation through time availability and technical support. Interventions in these logistical and human factors proved more powerful than providing economic incentives alone, successfully defusing resistance and leading to a positive attitude that drives sustained use. The study concludes that the success of digital transformation in Ecuador depends on the management of human capacity, recommending freeing up teaching loads for experimentation and institutionalizing evidence of impact as critical levers for decision-making.