Pestel analysis based on neutrosophic cognitive maps and neutrosophic numbers for the sinos river basin management

Abstract

The Sinos River watershed is one of the most polluted water basins in Brazil with great efforts for its recovery through integral management. PESTEL is an analysis for the study of the external variables with influence in the efficiency of the organization or project. This paper presents a model to address problems encountered in the measurement and evaluation process of PESTEL analysis taking into account interdependencies among sub-factors and modeling uncertainty and indeterminacy in Sinos river basin. A Neutrosophic Cognitive Maps was used for modeling the integrated structure of PESTEL sub-factors. A quantitative analysis was developed based on static analysis and neutrosophic numbers. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposal in the Sinos river external factor analysis a case study is developed.  Interdependencies among sub-factors were includes and uncertainty and indeterminacy were modeled in a practical way. Sub-factor was ranked and reduced, with Ecological, Technological and Social are the top three factors. The paper ends with a conclusion and future work recommendations.