A Mathematical Model to Analyze the Role of Uncertain and Indeterminate Factors in the Spread of Pandemics like COVID-19 Using Neutrosophy: A Case Study of India

Abstract

COVID-19 has been declared as pandemic by WHO. This disease is caused by severe
acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2). The spread of this virus from Wuhan,
China to the rest of the world has led to increasing concerns as it is considered a threat to mankind.
The present work in situation analysis using neutrosophy identifies factors which should be taken
care of so that the spread of this virus can be contained. Known factors as put forward by experts
together with indeterminate factors which are still not taken into consideration are used to model
the situation. This work using neutrosophic cognitive maps proves mathematically how these
indeterminate and unknown factors are responsible for the spread of COVID-19 in India. The
Neutrosophic Cognitive Map (NCM) is an enhanced version of Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) since
it takes into account the concept of indeterminacy and uncertainty, which is not addressed by
FCMs. The obtained results not only show the importance of determinate factors (measures taken
by the government bodies) in containing the spread of this deadly virus but also show how
indeterminate and uncertain factors such as poverty, negligence, ineffectual healthcare, age,
immunity, unscientific practices on religious grounds and illiteracy play a vital role in this regard.
This model, in general, helps policymakers and government agencies to represent any complicated
situation mathematically thereby helping them in responding appropriately and forming new
policies for dealing with such pandemics. This work also signifies how neutrosophic theories can
be applied in the analysis of the situation for dealing with real life problems.