Complex Neutrosophic α-Discounting Method for Multi-Criteria Risk Assessment under Periodic and Indeterminate Comprehensive Agro-Meteorological Hazards

Abstract

Agro-meteorological hazards such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, and pest outbreaks 
present complex challenges due to their inherent seasonality, uncertainty, and conflicting 
risk assessments from multiple sources. Traditional risk evaluation models struggle to 
simultaneously address periodic behaviour, inconsistent expert opinions, and 
indeterminate data. This paper proposes the Complex Neutrosophic α-Discounting Multi
Criteria Decision Making method (CN-αD MCDM), a novel mathematical framework that 
fuses α-Discounting for inconsistency correction with complex neutrosophic sets for 
representing periodic and indeterminate information. In CN-αD MCDM, the coefficients 
in the decision system are expressed as complex neutrosophic numbers, enabling the 
simultaneous modelling of truth, indeterminacy, and falsity, each with its own amplitude 
and phase term. The α-Discounting procedure is extended to operate in this domain, 
ensuring that inconsistent periodic hazard evaluations are transformed into a consistent, 
normalized complex neutrosophic risk priority vector. The methodology is 
mathematically formalized, and its capacity to handle weakly and strongly inconsistent 
agro-meteorological hazard scenarios is demonstrated through a fully calculated case 
study involving rainfall variability, temperature anomalies, and pest infestation cycles. 
Results confirm that CN-αD MCDM preserves the strengths of both α-Discounting and 
complex neutrosophic theory while introducing a unified approach to risk modelling in 
agriculture under meteorological uncertainty.

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.16884320