A Neutrosophic Monte Carlo Framework for Modeling  Indeterminate Participation and Cultural Impact in Tourism  Service Quality of Ethnic Sports Events

Chaolumen Ge; Xuelian Liu

Authors

Chaolumen Ge Mongolia Medical University, Huhehaote City, 010000, China
Xuelian Liu School of Physical Education, Inner Mongolia Medical University, 010000, China

Keywords:

Neutrosophic probability; Neutrosophic expected value; Monte Carlo simulation; Variance reduction; Ethnic sports tourism; Cultural impact modeling; Indeterminate information; Triple-measure framework.

Abstract

Ethnic sports tourism involves complex cultural, social, and economic interactions, where
uncertainty arises not only from randomness but also from incomplete and contradictory
information. Classical probability models cannot fully capture these features. In this
paper, we develop a novel Neutrosophic Monte Carlo framework to model participation
patterns and cultural impacts in ethnic sports tourism events. Each event is represented
by a neutrosophic probability triple (T, I, F), where T measures truth-membership, I
measures indeterminacy, and F measures falsity. We introduce a Neutrosophic Expected
Value and a Triple-Component Monte Carlo Estimator, and prove strong convergence
theorems and variance bounds for the proposed estimators. To enhance efficiency, we
design variance reduction techniques adapted to neutrosophic uncertainty, including
stratified sampling over cultural and temporal layers and control variates derived from
simplified cultural models. A fully computed case study on simulated ethnic sports
tourism scenarios demonstrates the accuracy and robustness of our approach, with
detailed numerical calculations and tables linking each neutrosophic measure to practical
interpretations. The framework establishes a mathematically rigorous and culturally
relevant foundation for decision-making in uncertain, heterogeneous tourism systems.