Multivariate Profiles of Potential Voters: Citizen Perception and Voting Intention with Set Theory and Neutrosophic Sets

Abstract

This article reveals sociodemographic features of likely voters and their voting intention regarding the 2024 concurrent election in Colima. For this quantitative, descriptive, transverse study, Sociodemographic variables were obtained—gender, age, schooling, main activity, income—and the inquiry, " If the elections were held today, with which political party would you vote?" A sample of 3,750 people over 18 was surveyed. External Logistic Biplot and cluster analysis were conducted to obtain multivariate profiles. In addition, a neutrosophic set theory was used to determine the vagueness and inconsistencies of the voting answer. The analysis revealed the following political parties with the highest intention to vote: MORENA (53.40%), MC (18.11%), and PRI (13.60%). Thus, it implies four profiles based on the similarities and differences of the subjects. Furthermore, the neutrosophic analysis found statistically significant group degrees of incompleteness and indeterminacy that added meaning to the results. In conclusion, results generalize intentions to vote by age, education, employment, income although gender is the outlier; the results show the population significantly identifies a party that continues the present government's trajectory; however, neutrosophic degrees of incompleteness show significant doubt.